Kerala Awaits Southwest Monsoon Around May 26, IMD Predicts

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced its forecast for the arrival of the southwest monsoon in Kerala, predicting that it will likely make landfall around May 26. However, officials have cautioned that this date may vary by a few days, either earlier or later, as weather patterns can be unpredictable.

Traditionally, the southwest monsoon season in India commences in June and typically begins to recede by September. The IMD officially marks the onset of the monsoon when it arrives in Kerala, which is considered the initial point of entry into the Indian mainland. Interestingly, in 2025, the monsoon hit the southern state on May 24, making it the earliest arrival since 2009, indicating that variations in the onset date have occurred frequently over the last century and a half.

In an earlier assessment made in April, the IMD highlighted concerns over expected rainfall levels for the upcoming monsoon season. This year marks a significant prediction, as the agency anticipates below-normal rainfall, a scenario not seen in over a decade. The forecast estimates rainfall to be around 92% of the long-period average of 87 centimeters during the crucial June to September window. The long-period average reflects the cumulative rainfall recorded in the monsoon months over the last half-century.

This year’s forecast comes on the heels of two consecutive years of above-average monsoon rainfall in 2024 and 2025, raising questions about this year’s weather dynamics. The southwest monsoon is vital for India, supplying more than 70% of the nation’s annual precipitation, which is essential for agriculture, drinking water resources, hydroelectric power generation, and groundwater replenishment.

As Kerala braces for the impending monsoon, farmers and local communities are keeping a close watch on the weather patterns. The onset of the monsoon not only brings relief from the sweltering heat but also plays a crucial role in agricultural productivity, particularly for the extensive rice paddies and cash crops that dominate the landscape. As the date approaches, all eyes will be on the skies to see how this year’s weather unfolds.

Source: scroll.in