IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for India This Year

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that India is expected to face below-normal rainfall during the upcoming southwest monsoon season, marking a significant weather forecast change not seen in over a decade. According to the agency’s latest report released on Monday, the anticipated rainfall from June to September is projected to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, indicating a potential shortfall that could impact agriculture and water resources across the country.

This year’s prediction is particularly noteworthy as it is the first such early forecast of below-normal rainfall by the IMD in the month of April since 2012. The primary driver behind this decrease in expected precipitation is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean starting around June. El Niño, a complex weather phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, has historically been associated with diminished monsoon rains in India.

El Niño events occur every few years and can significantly alter weather patterns globally. The IMD points out that while El Niño conditions are expected to take a stronger hold in the latter stages of the monsoon season—specifically in August and September—there are also signs that the current weak La Niña-like conditions are gradually transitioning towards a more neutral phase. La Niña typically brings increased rainfall to India, in contrast to its counterpart, El Niño.

Despite the ominous forecast linked to the arrival of El Niño, meteorologists suggest that several factors could potentially mitigate its effects on Indian monsoon rainfall. One such factor could be the development of a “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season, which can enhance rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. Furthermore, slightly below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere might also play a role in balancing the overall impact of El Niño.

The implications of this forecast are significant, particularly for farmers and agricultural sectors that rely heavily on the monsoon for irrigation. As India gears up for the monsoon season, stakeholders across various sectors will be keenly monitoring these developments, hoping for rain patterns that will support the nation’s agricultural viability and water supply.

Source: scroll.in